It's no secret that Historic is my favorite format. Since Historic was released full time onto the MTG Arena ladder, I have been playing the format non-stop. I usually stream it at least three times a week. You can imagine my delight when I heard the announcement that the second Arena Open was going to be Historic. I have a lot of testing under my belt and a lot of opinions about the format, so here are some of my predictions for how the weekend is going to play out. 

It's important to note that the Arena Open is almost like two separate events on each day. On Day One you play best-of-one games until you reach seven wins or three losses. People with seven wins will earn a token that gives them access to the event on Day Two. Day Two is best-of-three matches where you can win Arena gems or cash prizes. This is important because the Day One and Day Two metagame breakdowns will look drastically different, because best-of-one and best-of-three formats are drastically different. 

Day One Predictions

Goblins will be the most played deck.

Magic: The Gathering TCG Deck - Mono-Red Goblins by AKIO MATSUZAKI

'Mono-Red Goblins' - constructed deck list and prices for the Magic: The Gathering Trading Card Game from TCGplayer Infinite!

Created By: AKIO MATSUZAKI

Event: MtGHistoric Subreddit Tournament #11 - 07/18/2020

Rank: 1st

Freeform

Market Price: $86.39

Cards

Castle Embereth

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.34

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/199286_200w.jpg

Castle Embereth enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a Mountain.
{T}: Add {R}.
{1}{R}{R}, {T}: Creatures you control get +1/+0 until end of turn.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/199286/magic-throne-of-eldraine-castle-embereth

Gempalm Incinerator

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $1.16

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/149247_200w.jpg

Cycling {1}{R} ({1}{R}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)
When you cycle Gempalm Incinerator, you may have it deal X damage to target creature, where X is the number of Goblins on the battlefield.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/149247/magic-duel-decks-merfolk-vs-goblins-gempalm-incinerator

Goblin Ringleader

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.33

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/192546_200w.jpg

Haste (This creature can attack and {T} as soon as it comes under your control.)
When Goblin Ringleader enters the battlefield, reveal the top four cards of your library. Put all Goblin cards revealed this way into your hand and the rest on the bottom of your library in any order.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/192546/magic-core-set-2020-goblin-ringleader

Wily Goblin

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.33

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/144980_200w.jpg

When Wily Goblin enters the battlefield, create a Treasure token. (It's an artifact with "{T}, Sacrifice this artifact: Add one mana of any color.")

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/144980/magic-ixalan-wily-goblin

Mountain

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.05

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215722_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {R}.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215722/magic-core-set-2021-mountain-269

Goblin Matron

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.56

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/190645_200w.jpg

When Goblin Matron enters the battlefield, you may search your library for a Goblin card, reveal that card, put it into your hand, then shuffle.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/190645/magic-modern-horizons-goblin-matron

Krenko, Mob Boss

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $4.80

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/216654_200w.jpg

{T}: Create X 1/1 red Goblin creature tokens, where X is the number of Goblins you control.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/216654/magic-jumpstart-krenko-mob-boss

Goblin Warchief

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.51

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162167_200w.jpg

Goblin spells you cast cost {1} less to cast.
Goblins you control have haste.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162167/magic-dominaria-goblin-warchief

Skirk Prospector

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.23

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/164400_200w.jpg

Sacrifice a Goblin: Add {R}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/164400/magic-dominaria-skirk-prospector

Legion Warboss

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $2.04

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/175192_200w.jpg

Mentor (Whenever this creature attacks, put a +1/+1 counter on target attacking creature with lesser power.)
At the beginning of combat on your turn, create a 1/1 red Goblin creature token. That token gains haste until end of turn and attacks this combat if able.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/175192/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-legion-warboss

Goblin Ruinblaster

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.15

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/33306_200w.jpg

Kicker {R} (You may pay an additional {R} as you cast this spell.)
Haste
When Goblin Ruinblaster enters the battlefield, if it was kicked, destroy target nonbasic land.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/33306/magic-zendikar-goblin-ruinblaster

Goblin Chieftain

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $2.90

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/216638_200w.jpg

Haste (This creature can attack and {T} as soon as it comes under your control.)
Other Goblin creatures you control get +1/+1 and have haste.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/216638/magic-jumpstart-goblin-chieftain

Goblin Instigator

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.23

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/216642_200w.jpg

When Goblin Instigator enters the battlefield, create a 1/1 red Goblin creature token.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/216642/magic-jumpstart-goblin-instigator

Soul-Guide Lantern

Market Price: $2.06

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/206867_200w.jpg

When Soul-Guide Lantern enters the battlefield, exile target card from a graveyard.
{T}, Sacrifice Soul-Guide Lantern: Exile each opponent's graveyard.
{1}, {T}, Sacrifice Soul-Guide Lantern: Draw a card.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/206867/magic-theros-beyond-death-soulguide-lantern

Conspicuous Snoop

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $1.82

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215603_200w.jpg

Play with the top card of your library revealed.
You may cast Goblin spells from the top of your library.
As long as the top card of your library is a Goblin card, Conspicuous Snoop has all activated abilities of that card.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215603/magic-core-set-2021-conspicuous-snoop

Muxus, Goblin Grandee

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $8.46

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/216346_200w.jpg

When Muxus, Goblin Grandee enters the battlefield, reveal the top six cards of your library. Put all Goblin creature cards with mana value 5 or less from among them onto the battlefield and the rest on the bottom of your library in a random order.
Whenever Muxus attacks, it gets +1/+1 until end of turn for each other Goblin you control.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/216346/magic-jumpstart-muxus-goblin-grandee

Goblin Chainwhirler

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.32

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162166_200w.jpg

First strike
When Goblin Chainwhirler enters the battlefield, it deals 1 damage to each opponent and each creature and planeswalker they control.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162166/magic-dominaria-goblin-chainwhirler

Goblins has always been a popular archetype across multiple formats among Magic players, so it was no surprise to me that people initially gravitated to this tribe when Historic was gaining popularity. With the recent release of Jumpstart onto Arena, Goblins has only soared in popularity because of some key reprints like Goblin Chieftain and Krenko, Mob Boss.

On top of those strong reprints, new card Muxus, Goblin Grandee was unleashed on Historic. Muxus is a one-card combo that can end the game on the spot if you flip into Goblin Chieftain or Goblin Warboss.

This will likely be the most played deck in best-of-one because aggro is typically one of the best things to do in a best-of-one match. You don't want to risk a bad matchup in best-of-one, so keeping your midrange and control decks at home is common. Goblins is explosive, powering out Muxus, Goblin Grandee as early as turn three. It's also important to note that aggro is going to be especially enticing for the Arena Open because you are able to enter the event multiple times trying to get your seven wins. This means a lot of people will want to finish their games as quickly as possible in case they need to enter the tournament multiple times. 

Kethis Combo will have the highest win rate.

Magic: The Gathering TCG Deck - Kethis Combo by Tomohiro Nakagawa

'Kethis Combo' - constructed deck list and prices for the Magic: The Gathering Trading Card Game from TCGplayer Infinite!

Created By: Tomohiro Nakagawa

Event: MtGHistoric Subreddit Tournament #11 - 07/18/2020

Rank: 3rd-4th

Freeform

Market Price: $505.22

Cards

Mystical Dispute

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.89

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/198683_200w.jpg

This spell costs {2} less to cast if it targets a blue spell.
Counter target spell unless its controller pays {3}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/198683/magic-throne-of-eldraine-mystical-dispute

Jace, Wielder of Mysteries

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $6.66

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/187141_200w.jpg

If you would draw a card while your library has no cards in it, you win the game instead.
+1: Target player mills two cards. Draw a card.
−8: Draw seven cards. Then if your library has no cards in it, you win the game.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/187141/magic-war-of-the-spark-jace-wielder-of-mysteries

Temple Garden

Color Identity:G,W

Market Price: $9.07

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/175203_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {G} or {W}.)
As Temple Garden enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/175203/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-temple-garden

Oath of Kaya

Color Identity:B,W

Market Price: $0.24

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/188651_200w.jpg

When Oath of Kaya enters the battlefield, it deals 3 damage to any target and you gain 3 life.
Whenever an opponent attacks a planeswalker you control with one or more creatures, Oath of Kaya deals 2 damage to that player and you gain 2 life.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/188651/magic-war-of-the-spark-oath-of-kaya

Chromatic Sphere

Market Price: $0.81

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/216112_200w.jpg

{1}, {T}, Sacrifice Chromatic Sphere: Add one mana of any color. Draw a card.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/216112/magic-jumpstart-chromatic-sphere

Glacial Fortress

Color Identity:U,W

Market Price: $3.58

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/142037_200w.jpg

Glacial Fortress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a Plains or an Island.
{T}: Add {W} or {U}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/142037/magic-ixalan-glacial-fortress

Lazav, the Multifarious

Color Identity:B,U

Market Price: $1.19

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/176575_200w.jpg

When Lazav, the Multifarious enters the battlefield, surveil 1. (Look at the top card of your library. You may put it into your graveyard.)
{X}: Lazav, the Multifarious becomes a copy of target creature card in your graveyard with mana value X, except its name is Lazav, the Multifarious, it's legendary in addition to its other types, and it has this ability.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/176575/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-lazav-the-multifarious

Diligent Excavator

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.08

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/164693_200w.jpg

Whenever you cast a historic spell, target player mills two cards. (Artifacts, legendaries, and Sagas are historic.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/164693/magic-dominaria-diligent-excavator

Kethis, the Hidden Hand

Color Identity:B,G,W

Market Price: $2.34

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/192696_200w.jpg

Legendary spells you cast cost {1} less to cast.
Exile two legendary cards from your graveyard: Until end of turn, each legendary card in your graveyard gains "You may play this card from your graveyard."

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/192696/magic-core-set-2020-kethis-the-hidden-hand

Hallowed Fountain

Color Identity:U,W

Market Price: $7.91

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/182831_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {W} or {U}.)
As Hallowed Fountain enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/182831/magic-ravnica-allegiance-hallowed-fountain

Watery Grave

Color Identity:B,U

Market Price: $11.02

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/175205_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {U} or {B}.)
As Watery Grave enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/175205/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-watery-grave

Sunpetal Grove

Color Identity:G,W

Market Price: $4.36

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/142039_200w.jpg

Sunpetal Grove enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a Forest or a Plains.
{T}: Add {G} or {W}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/142039/magic-ixalan-sunpetal-grove

Drowned Catacomb

Color Identity:B,U

Market Price: $7.47

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/142036_200w.jpg

Drowned Catacomb enters the battlefield tapped unless you control an Island or a Swamp.
{T}: Add {U} or {B}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/142036/magic-ixalan-drowned-catacomb

Urza's Ruinous Blast

Color Identity:W

Market Price: $1.24

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162211_200w.jpg

(You may cast a legendary sorcery only if you control a legendary creature or planeswalker.)
Exile all nonland permanents that aren't legendary.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162211/magic-dominaria-urzas-ruinous-blast

Tamiyo, Collector of Tales

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $0.70

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/188490_200w.jpg

Spells and abilities your opponents control can't cause you to discard cards or sacrifice permanents.
+1: Choose a nonland card name, then reveal the top four cards of your library. Put all cards with the chosen name from among them into your hand and the rest into your graveyard.
−3: Return target card from your graveyard to your hand.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/188490/magic-war-of-the-spark-tamiyo-collector-of-tales

Ashiok, Dream Render

Color Identity:B,U

Market Price: $1.14

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/188627_200w.jpg

Spells and abilities your opponents control can't cause their controller to search their library.
−1: Target player mills four cards. Then exile each opponent's graveyard.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/188627/magic-war-of-the-spark-ashiok-dream-render

Indatha Triome

Color Identity:B,G,W

Market Price: $8.35

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212689_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {W}, {B}, or {G}.)
Indatha Triome enters the battlefield tapped.
Cycling {3} ({3}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212689/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-indatha-triome

Teferi, Time Raveler

Color Identity:U,W

Market Price: $20.44

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/187194_200w.jpg

Each opponent can cast spells only any time they could cast a sorcery.
+1: Until your next turn, you may cast sorcery spells as though they had flash.
−3: Return up to one target artifact, creature, or enchantment to its owner's hand. Draw a card.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/187194/magic-war-of-the-spark-teferi-time-raveler

Mox Amber

Market Price: $30.38

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162125_200w.jpg

{T}: Add one mana of any color among legendary creatures and planeswalkers you control.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162125/magic-dominaria-mox-amber

Teshar, Ancestor's Apostle

Color Identity:W

Market Price: $0.58

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162209_200w.jpg

Flying
Whenever you cast a historic spell, return target creature card with mana value 3 or less from your graveyard to the battlefield. (Artifacts, legendaries, and Sagas are historic.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162209/magic-dominaria-teshar-ancestors-apostle

Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $11.96

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/206836_200w.jpg

When Uro enters the battlefield, sacrifice it unless it escaped.
Whenever Uro enters the battlefield or attacks, you gain 3 life and draw a card, then you may put a land card from your hand onto the battlefield.
Escape—{G}{G}{U}{U}, Exile five other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast this card from your graveyard for its escape cost.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/206836/magic-theros-beyond-death-uro-titan-of-natures-wrath

Cast Down

Color Identity:B

Market Price: $0.29

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/226354_200w.jpg

Destroy target nonlegendary creature.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/226354/magic-commander-legends-cast-down

Plains

Color Identity:W

Market Price: $0.04

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/242996_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {W}.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/242996/magic-adventures-in-the-forgotten-realms-plains-263

Negate

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.10

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/222130_200w.jpg

Counter target noncreature spell.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/222130/magic-zendikar-rising-negate

Zagoth Triome

Color Identity:B,G,U

Market Price: $11.22

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212691_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {B}, {G}, or {U}.)
Zagoth Triome enters the battlefield tapped.
Cycling {3} ({3}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212691/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-zagoth-triome

Emry, Lurker of the Loch

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $3.23

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/198857_200w.jpg

This spell costs {1} less to cast for each artifact you control.
When Emry, Lurker of the Loch enters the battlefield, mill four cards.
{T}: Choose target artifact card in your graveyard. You may cast that card this turn. (You still pay its costs. Timing rules still apply.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/198857/magic-throne-of-eldraine-emry-lurker-of-the-loch

Breeding Pool

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $20.91

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/182842_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {G} or {U}.)
As Breeding Pool enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/182842/magic-ravnica-allegiance-breeding-pool

I recently started playing Kethis Combo to practice for this Arena Open. I was previously not confident in my capabilities to pilot this combo deck, but a lot of the deck was just understanding the combo and getting in as many reps as possible.

Some of the best players playing in the Open will realize that Kethis is a broken deck and register it. I don't think many people will play Kethis because it is intimidating to pick up and play, as well as the wildcard requirement to complete the deck is very high on Arena. If people don't already have access to the deck on Arena and/or don't have the comfort with the deck, they won't play it. This leaves a relatively small group of people to actually register the deck. 

However, among these people, the deck will put up an unreasonably high win rate. There isn't a lot that can really stop Kethis in my experience. Aggro can pressure the Kethis player's life-total, but they often do not interact with the combo in any meaningful way. "Hate" cards don't really exist to beat Kethis as long as the Kethis player has access to Teferi, Time Raveler. The only hate card to beat me in best-of-one was effects like Necromentia and Unmoored Ego

Temur Rec is an overrated best-of-one deck.

This might be my hot take, but Temur Reclamation is a much better best-of-three deck than best-of-one, and I would only play Temur Reclamation in Day Two of the Arena Open. While Temur is technically a combo deck, it still thrives on being able to combat what the opponent is doing by interacting with them. These strategies are most successful in best-of-three matches because you can have a diverse sideboard that helps you tackle aggro, control, combo, and anything else you come across. When it comes to best-of-one, you have to build your deck with all of these potential opponents in mind, which will lead to a suboptimal build.

Most Temur Rec decks in best-of-one should be built to beat Goblins and Kethis Combo, but people will still bring other decks like Azorius Control, Mono-Red Aggro, Boros Feather, Mono-Blue Tempo, etc. Temur Rec most likely cannot be prepared for everything thrown at it. 

Day Two Predictions

Temur Reclamation will be the most played deck.

Magic: The Gathering TCG Deck - Temur Reclamation by Kasey Jarvis

'Temur Reclamation' - constructed deck list and prices for the Magic: The Gathering Trading Card Game from TCGplayer Infinite!

Created By: Kasey Jarvis

Event:

Rank:

Historic

Market Price: $380.03

Cards

Steam Vents

Color Identity:R,U

Market Price: $14.21

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/175202_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {U} or {R}.)
As Steam Vents enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/175202/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-steam-vents

Stomping Ground

Color Identity:G,R

Market Price: $9.03

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/182841_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {R} or {G}.)
As Stomping Ground enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/182841/magic-ravnica-allegiance-stomping-ground

Wilderness Reclamation

Color Identity:G

Market Price: $2.25

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212521_200w.jpg

At the beginning of your end step, untap all lands you control.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212521/magic-commander-2020-wilderness-reclamation

Rootbound Crag

Color Identity:G,R

Market Price: $3.74

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/142038_200w.jpg

Rootbound Crag enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a Mountain or a Forest.
{T}: Add {R} or {G}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/142038/magic-ixalan-rootbound-crag

Negate

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.10

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/222130_200w.jpg

Counter target noncreature spell.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/222130/magic-zendikar-rising-negate

Flame Sweep

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.16

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/192507_200w.jpg

Flame Sweep deals 2 damage to each creature except for creatures you control with flying.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/192507/magic-core-set-2020-flame-sweep

Magmaquake

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.14

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/243859_200w.jpg

Magmaquake deals X damage to each creature without flying and each planeswalker.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/243859/magic-commander-adventures-in-the-forgotten-realms-magmaquake

Temple of Epiphany

Color Identity:R,U

Market Price: $0.46

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/236287_200w.jpg

Temple of Epiphany enters the battlefield tapped.
When Temple of Epiphany enters the battlefield, scry 1.
{T}: Add {U} or {R}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/236287/magic-commander-2021-temple-of-epiphany

Bonecrusher Giant // Stomp

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $1.14

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/199035_200w.jpg

Buy This Card! https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/throne-of-eldraine/bonecrusher-giant

Island

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.05

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215718_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {U}.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215718/magic-core-set-2021-island-265

Zagoth Triome

Color Identity:B,G,U

Market Price: $11.22

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212691_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {B}, {G}, or {U}.)
Zagoth Triome enters the battlefield tapped.
Cycling {3} ({3}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212691/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-zagoth-triome

Forest

Color Identity:G

Market Price: $0.04

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/196478_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {G}.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/196478/magic-commander-2019-forest-300

Temple of Mystery

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $0.52

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/236345_200w.jpg

Temple of Mystery enters the battlefield tapped.
When Temple of Mystery enters the battlefield, scry 1.
{T}: Add {G} or {U}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/236345/magic-commander-2021-temple-of-mystery

Sulfur Falls

Color Identity:R,U

Market Price: $4.16

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162122_200w.jpg

Sulfur Falls enters the battlefield tapped unless you control an Island or a Mountain.
{T}: Add {U} or {R}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162122/magic-dominaria-sulfur-falls

Expansion // Explosion

Color Identity:R,U

Market Price: $2.24

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/176440_200w.jpg

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/176440/magic-guilds-of-ravnica-expansion-explosion

Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $11.96

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/206836_200w.jpg

When Uro enters the battlefield, sacrifice it unless it escaped.
Whenever Uro enters the battlefield or attacks, you gain 3 life and draw a card, then you may put a land card from your hand onto the battlefield.
Escape—{G}{G}{U}{U}, Exile five other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast this card from your graveyard for its escape cost.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/206836/magic-theros-beyond-death-uro-titan-of-natures-wrath

Search for Azcanta

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $4.63

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/145370_200w.jpg

At the beginning of your upkeep, look at the top card of your library. You may put it into your graveyard. Then if you have seven or more cards in your graveyard, you may transform Search for Azcanta.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/145370/magic-ixalan-search-for-azcanta

Shark Typhoon

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $10.97

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212133_200w.jpg

Whenever you cast a noncreature spell, create an X/X blue Shark creature token with flying, where X is that spell's mana value.
Cycling {X}{1}{U} ({X}{1}{U}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)
When you cycle Shark Typhoon, create an X/X blue Shark creature token with flying.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212133/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-shark-typhoon

Breeding Pool

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $20.91

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/182842_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {G} or {U}.)
As Breeding Pool enters the battlefield, you may pay 2 life. If you don't, it enters the battlefield tapped.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/182842/magic-ravnica-allegiance-breeding-pool

Blast Zone

Market Price: $2.82

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/188636_200w.jpg

Blast Zone enters the battlefield with a charge counter on it.
{T}: Add {C}.
{X}{X}, {T}: Put X charge counters on Blast Zone.
{3}, {T}, Sacrifice Blast Zone: Destroy each nonland permanent with mana value equal to the number of charge counters on Blast Zone.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/188636/magic-war-of-the-spark-blast-zone

Aether Gust

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.25

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/192535_200w.jpg

Choose target spell or permanent that's red or green. Its owner puts it on the top or bottom of their library.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/192535/magic-core-set-2020-aether-gust

Growth Spiral

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $0.37

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/227368_200w.jpg

Draw a card. You may put a land card from your hand onto the battlefield.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/227368/magic-commander-legends-growth-spiral

Explore

Color Identity:G

Market Price: $0.22

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/243856_200w.jpg

You may play an additional land this turn.
Draw a card.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/243856/magic-commander-adventures-in-the-forgotten-realms-explore

Scavenging Ooze

Color Identity:G

Market Price: $0.59

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215695_200w.jpg

{G}: Exile target card from a graveyard. If it was a creature card, put a +1/+1 counter on Scavenging Ooze and you gain 1 life.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215695/magic-core-set-2021-scavenging-ooze

Brazen Borrower // Petty Theft

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $20.18

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/199387_200w.jpg

Buy This Card! https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/throne-of-eldraine/brazen-borrower

Raugrin Triome

Color Identity:R,U,W

Market Price: $11.43

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212695_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {U}, {R}, or {W}.)
Raugrin Triome enters the battlefield tapped.
Cycling {3} ({3}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212695/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-raugrin-triome

Fabled Passage

Market Price: $4.58

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215556_200w.jpg

{T}, Sacrifice Fabled Passage: Search your library for a basic land card, put it onto the battlefield tapped, then shuffle. Then if you control four or more lands, untap that land.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215556/magic-core-set-2021-fabled-passage

Mountain

Color Identity:R

Market Price: $0.05

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/215722_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {R}.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/215722/magic-core-set-2021-mountain-269

Ketria Triome

Color Identity:G,R,U

Market Price: $12.37

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/212697_200w.jpg

({T}: Add {G}, {U}, or {R}.)
Ketria Triome enters the battlefield tapped.
Cycling {3} ({3}, Discard this card: Draw a card.)

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/212697/magic-ikoria-lair-of-behemoths-ketria-triome

Temple of Abandon

Color Identity:G,R

Market Price: $0.99

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/206632_200w.jpg

Temple of Abandon enters the battlefield tapped.
When Temple of Abandon enters the battlefield, scry 1.
{T}: Add {R} or {G}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/206632/magic-theros-beyond-death-temple-of-abandon

Hinterland Harbor

Color Identity:G,U

Market Price: $7.15

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/162120_200w.jpg

Hinterland Harbor enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a Forest or an Island.
{T}: Add {G} or {U}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/162120/magic-dominaria-hinterland-harbor

Field of the Dead

Market Price: $18.50

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/192562_200w.jpg

Field of the Dead enters the battlefield tapped.
{T}: Add {C}.
Whenever Field of the Dead or another land enters the battlefield under your control, if you control seven or more lands with different names, create a 2/2 black Zombie creature token.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/192562/magic-core-set-2020-field-of-the-dead

Mystical Dispute

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.89

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/198683_200w.jpg

This spell costs {2} less to cast if it targets a blue spell.
Counter target spell unless its controller pays {3}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/198683/magic-throne-of-eldraine-mystical-dispute

Thassa's Intervention

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $0.22

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/206962_200w.jpg

Choose one —
• Look at the top X cards of your library. Put up to two of them into your hand and the rest on the bottom of your library in a random order.
• Counter target spell unless its controller pays twice {X}.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/206962/magic-theros-beyond-death-thassas-intervention

Castle Vantress

Color Identity:U

Market Price: $2.10

ImageURL: https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/199284_200w.jpg

Castle Vantress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control an Island.
{T}: Add {U}.
{2}{U}{U}, {T}: Scry 2.

Buy This Card! https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/199284/magic-throne-of-eldraine-castle-vantress

While Temur Reclamation might not be the best choice for Day One, it is an excellent choice for Day Two—and everyone knows it. Wilderness Reclamation has taken over both Standard and Historic to the point that even Reclamation fans are screaming for a ban. It is abundantly evident that the deck is powerful and has the potential to beat everything with a good sideboard. Because of this, anyone trying to do well on Day Two is likely to register some build of Temur Rec, and they aren't wrong to do so. I don't think Temur Rec will have a higher win-rate than Kethis Combo, but it will definitely take the spotlight and have the most copies in Day Two. 

Kethis Combo will have the highest win rate, but be under-represented.

This is similar to my prediction in best-of-one, but I think this is exaggerated in best-of-three. The Kethis sideboard often includes even more rare and mythic rare wildcards that people might not have access to. Additionally, Kethis Combo becomes significantly more difficult to pilot in post-board games where your opponent knows your plan and has multiple ways to interact with you. It's difficult to navigate around all of your opponent's interaction while simultaneously diluting your combo by sideboarding against your opponent. Similar to best-of-one, these barriers will prevent people from playing Kethis in Day Two of the Open, however the people that do register Kethis will likely have a high win rate and run deep into Day Two. 

Goblins will bomb in the best-of-three meta.

Let's be honest: Goblins is fun and Muxus, Goblin Grandee is abundantly powerful, but it just hasn't been performing well in best-of-three matches lately. Everyone has realized they need to be able to beat Goblins if they want to compete in Historic and are packing hate and interaction accordingly.

I think a lot of people will still register Goblins in Day Two because it can win through interaction simply by casting Muxus. However, in previous MTGA Zone and Mythic Society Historic tournaments, Goblins has not been able to keep up with the omnipresent Temur Reclamation in every corner. I expect a similar win rate for Goblins in Day Two of the Open as it had in the other tournaments (about 40% I believe). 

Other decks are a mistake.

In both best-of-one and best-of-three, I haven't been impressed with any other decks. Mono-Red Aggro and Rakdos Sacrifice can hold their own, but if you want to win $2,000 you should just play Temur Reclamation or Kethis Combo. Both decks are hard to hate out or interact with in meaningful ways. They are proactive, invalidate other decks, and are incredibly resilient.

If you want to register a different deck, it should be a deck you are an expert at. I cannot overstate how broken Temur Reclamation and Kethis Combo are. 

Post-Tournament Predictions

The tournament is likely going to highlight key problems in the format. In the previous B&R announcement, Nexus of Fate was (unfairly) banned, instead of the enabler card: Wilderness Reclamation. Because of this, Reclamation decks just evolved into the next logical deck: Temur Rec (who could've seen that coming?) 

Kethis Combo and Temur Reclamation are the two best decks in best-of-three Historic by a long shot. As I stated before, Kethis will be under-represented in the tournament because of all of the barriers to play it (wildcards, skill, perceived difficulty). This will leave all eyes on Temur Reclamation.

I definitely expect a suspension or restriction of Temur Reclamation after this weekend. Players will also call for a Muxus ban, however I do not believe that is necessary anymore. 

* * *

With all that in mind, I would overall recommend Kethis Combo for both best-of-one and best-of-three for this weekend. The deck is broken, and most people aren't going to play it because of its perceived difficulty and Arena wildcard restrictions. If you can play Kethis—do.

I hope you liked all my hot takes and take my advice (or try to prove me wrong) this weekend in the Arena Open. Good luck, have fun!