This week was a tale of falling prices and questionable investments. Let's jump right in.
Rapid Strike Urshifu hit a low of $4.34 per copy last week, but then demand started to pick back up and prices rose in response. I think we've seen this card's floor, and while it hasn't gone over $7 in all of April, I doubt it'll dip below $4 either.
This promo card (available in every product-hover id="230392") also hit its floor last week, with an average price sold on the 23rd of $4.03. Unlike product-hover id="234267" though, that spike in demand came from a small number of buyers, which indicates the interest is from resellers looking to flip Dragapult VMAX rather than collectors hoping to keep it.
As a result, its price has barely ticked up since then, and it's still selling for under $5. We've seen time and again that buyouts like this have failed to impact Pokémon card prices significantly. It's only worth buying a stack of cards if you're confident its price will increase regardless of how you impact the supply.
So, eight of our Top 10 cards this week are from Shining Fates. The set is an unqualified hit among collectors, and people have been buying and cracking sealed products non-stop. That steady stream of supply is depressing prices across the board.
For example, here's Charizard VMAX (swsh45sv-SV107):
And here's Skyla (swsh45-72):
When even the biggest pulls from the set can't hold their value, it's not surprising that more readily available cards like Yveltal (swsh45-46) are dropping to new lows on a weekly basis.
Even with copies selling for under $3.50, demand for this card is still lower than it was at any time in March. It's possible we still haven't seen this card's floor yet.
Remember what I said about buyouts not affecting prices? I can't really think of a better example than this:
You see that massive spike on the 14th? A handful of buyers picked up a ridiculous number of copies of this card for an average of $8.57 each. That was enough to make the price spike over $9 for exactly one day... then it dropped under $8 and has been on a downward trajectory ever since. The two largest days for this card since the 14th have also been driven by resellers, and still, the card is down to $6.79 a copy.
Unlike most Pokémon promo cards, Crobat V is relevant in Standard, and it's only going to become more crucial to competitive players once Dedenne-GX (sm10-57) rotates in September. That bodes well for the card's future, but history has proven that whenever a competitive staple gets too important, The Pokémon Company has no qualms with reprinting it into oblivion. Just look at Zacian V (swsh1-138), one of the biggest competitive cards from Sword & Shield Base Set:
The red lines are the week Zacian V first released in Sword & Shield Base Set. The pink lines are the week a promo version was printed in the product-hover id="214230", and the light blue lines are the week the product-hover id="226138" was released. There's actually been way more demand for this card since that Battle Deck came out, and a few resellers have stocked up by ordering in bulk (that's the three biggest demand spikes in early 2021). But even with higher demand, buyouts, runaway competitive success, and an end to lockdowns on the horizon, Zacian V still hasn't returned to the price it held before the last reprint, much less the price it had during its first week.
The lesson is, you can't rely on competitive cards holding their value over time. At any moment, TPCI could decide to flood the market with reprints.
Oh look, it's a competitive staple that sells well every week.
Oh look, another one.
Like I said, everyone's buying Shining Fates. That includes the product-hover id="228821" this promo card comes in.
While it also suffers from the success of Shining Fates, Reshiram actually picked up in price a teensy bit compared to last week:
Time will tell, but I think we may have finally hit this card's floor, right around $4.
This sounds ridiculous, but I Pikachu V is experiencing a slow-motion buyout. In April, the average number of copies each buyer bought was 3.9—reasonable for a competitive staple, but way too high for a low-value collectible like this.
All those big spikes in demand are obvious and egregious buyouts, but most of the smaller green bars aren't organic either. It's only on days like April 4th (highlighted in red) that we see an average quantity per buyer of 1. That's the fraction of this card's sales that actually represent interest from the community.
Whoever's out there buying every copy of Pikachu V they can find, I hope you're doing a craft project or wallpapering a room or something. Because if you're thinking of this card as an investment, I'm worried for you.
Hey, Lysandre. See you again next week.