We're two weeks past the May 7 release of Ancient Guardians, and two weeks out from the June 4 launch of Lightning Overdrive.
This week we saw the results from both the Group A and Group B Remote Duel Qualifiers, featuring huge showings from Prank-Kids and Dinosaurs. Dragon Link was big too, but it failed to win either event, even as qualifying players innovated the strategy with Dragunity Remus. Zoodiac Tri-Brigade, Neos Numeron OTK, Infinitrack Machina, and even Blackwings put in impressive showings.
The one strategy we didn't see in Top Cut action was the it-deck of the month: Ogdoadics. The new Reptile deck was virtually the only thing buyers paid attention to in Ancient Guardians presales, and they've dominated the Top 10 in the TCGplayer Marketplace since. Ogdoadics were still huge in the Top 10 this week, but with no success at their first big tournament weekend, the actual number of Ogdoadic cards sold were way down. Interest is clearly flagging, partly because lots of players who wanted to try the deck already bought their cards over the last three weeks, and because the lack of a Top Cut finish failed to drive new interest.
That said, the Yu-Gi-Oh Extravaganza this weekend offers three tournaments that players generally look to for competitive results: the two ATTACK OF THE GIANT CARD!! tournaments, and the Sunday Extravaganza Main Event. A Top Cut finish in any of those three tournaments could spike interest in Ogdoadics, while another failure to launch may hammer the coffin shut.
It's going to be a big weekend. Here's what the Top 10 best-sellers looked like on TCGplayer heading into it.
With interest in Ogdoadics slipping, cards from other themes - and other sets entirely - started to break back into the Top 10. Knightmare Link Monsters have been some of the best-selling singles in the game ever since Knightmare Phoenix, Knightmare Cerberus, and especially Knightmare Unicorn got budget reprints in Toon Chaos eleven months ago.
Knightmare Unicorn a particularly hot pick, because it was relatively expensive until it was reprinted. A lot of players just didn't own it when it was $18 or more, and opted to run strategies that didn't need it. Now, with lots of local game stores reopening and interest still surging in Remote Duels, the high number of players picking up their copy of Knightmare Unicorn is testament to the recovering interest in cardboard Yu-Gi-Oh.
Snake Rain's a must-run at three in Ogdoadics, but its slide from the Number 1 position in ANGU presales to Number 9 now shows a trend I predicted a few weeks ago: with Ancient Guardians bringing a cheap, easy-to-pull version of the card, the people who were hoarding dozens of copies of the TAEV original are starting to let them go more easily: while the TAEV print of Snake Rain was selling for $7 to $8 earlier this month, it's now crashed to the $2 to $3 range, and there's really no reason for it to be even that expensive. Both versions of the card are normal Rares, it's way easier to find Near Mint copies of the ANGU version, and the reprint's a fraction of the price.
At this point I'd be willing to bet that lots of people are finding their copies locally or getting them from friends, and that's why the demand for this three-of is so much lower than other, newer cards an Ogdoadic player would want three copies of.
The actual order of Ogdoadic cards in the Top 10 over the last few weeks was a bit weird, something I noted early on: players seemed to be stocking up on lots of extras of cards that the deck only really needs one copy of, and picking up theme-stamped cards the deck probably wouldn't even play. This time around the priority demonstrated in the marketplace actually lines up with the importance of each card really well, and that's cool because it's showing a growing understanding of the Ogdoadic strategy.
With that in mind, it makes a lot of sense to see Keurse, the Ogdoadic Light and Aleirtt, the Ogdoadic Dark at Number 8 and Number 7 respectively: they're both Level 8's you'd run one copy of, and they both have similar Special Summoning conditions so they often play similar roles in combo plays.
Up from Number 7 last week, players are still really interested in Ogdoabyss, the Ogdoadic Overlord, and it's still leading the set's other biggest pulls: if you ignore Collector's Rares, Ogdoabyss, the Ogdoadic Overlord is the most valuable card in the set, a few dollars ahead of FaSolfachord Fancia and DoSolfachord Coolia. That said though, it's still well under $20, and if Ogdoadics were to become competitive that price could easily double the moment it tops a notable tournament.
The number of copies of Ogdoabyss, the Ogdoadic Overlord sold was quite a bit higher than the number of buyers, suggesting a mix of player demand and speculation. It's very possible that investors are seeing the current price of Ogdoabyss, the Ogdoadic Overlord as an opportunity and picking up extra copies.
Again, these are two cards with similar functions in the Ogdoadic deck, and this week they were grouped very closely together. Aron, the Ogdoadic King is up from Number 9 last week, down a few dollars in value, while Amunessia, the Ogdoadic Queen is up from Number 12. The Queen's down almost five dollars from its previous price of $13 to $14, and the market's clearly reacted to that, as players who were willing to wait two weeks are now reaping the benefits.
Nauya, the Ogdoadic Remnant and Nunu, the Ogdoadic Remnant were grouped together last week at the Number 1 and Number 2 positions, and they took similar spots this week. No surprise there: both cards are absolute must-runs at three copies each in every Ogdoadic build I've seen, and they're both cheap gets.
If you're just coming back or just taking your first look at these cards, the tl;dr is that these two monsters are the clutch combo starters for both the control-oriented, and OTK/FTK versions of this deck, so if you want to play Ogdoadics you just have to own them. The fact that they're both Super Rares was obviously a purposeful choice from the powers that be to keep Ogdoadics accessible.
And finally, the Number 1 best-selling card in the TCGplayer Marketplace this week is another three-of staple for Ogdoadics. Up from Number 3 last week, Ogdoadic Water Lily a Foolish Burial for Reptiles, and if you play it as a follow-up to Snake Rain it's a combo-starting Monster Reborn, too. For a theme that operates entirely by filling its graveyard and then playing cards from it, there's just nothing better, and like Nauya, the Ogdoadic Remnant and Nunu, the Ogdoadic Remnant it's a dirt cheap Super Rare.
All in all? Not the most thrilling Top 10, right? But looking beyond the Top 10 proper we can see some interesting stuff. DoSolfachord Coolia came in at Number 11, dropping to $13 and looking like a hot prospect for any investor who thinks Solfachord could see play in the short term, or anyone just willing to wait a year or two for Ancient Guardians to disappear off shelves.
Red-Eyes Black Dragon came in at Number 12, for reasons I don't think I understand - cheap printings were huge this week, with the Joey Starter Deck version leading the pack. Was there some Red-Eyes support announcement I missed? Is it Red-Eyes Dark Dragoon? And if it is, why now?
Sacred Tree Beast, Hyperyton saw a big spike again too, landing at Number 13 despite no renewed play at the latest RDI Qualifiers. This card was talked about as a successor to True King of All Calamities in Virtual World, but Virtual World's barely been a factor in tournaments, so the spike of interest here likely has some other cause.
That left Zohah, the Ogdoadic Boundless at Number 14, and Skull Meister at Number 15. Zohah, the Ogdoadic Boundless down from Number 8, which makes sense since almost nobody runs it, while Skull Meister one of the set's best reprints, bringing a must-own hand trap to the budget masses.
It seems like players are starting to shore up their ANGU shopping so they can start to save for Lightning Overdrive. We should have our first look at LIOV presales in a week or two!